at Denver -2.5
Pittsburgh 45½ -140
+120
Projected Win Probability: 43.56%
The Steelers opened
up their 2012 season as underdogs for the third straight year Sunday night and
underachieved for a second straight time in a disappointing 31-19 defeat to the
hands of Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.
Similar to last season,
I doubt I will write individual game-by-game articles this year, but had some
time this week and thought I’d make some comments about the team’s Sunday night
performance. After a few days to let the
results sink in and get inside the numbers, I am actually more discouraged than
I was immediately following the loss.
Looking at the glass
half full, Roethlisberger and the offense did have the ball with 3:00 left in
the game, at their own 20 yard line, two timeouts needing a touchdown to win
it. Plenty of time and optimism considering
the Steelers had scored on four of their previous five possessions (two of
which were touchdowns). Up to that
point, Roethlisberger had scratched and clawed behind an injured offensive line
to accumulate a 105.3 deljzc rating, despite an uncharacteristic 5.84 YPA.
Things were not to
be however as Roethlisberger threw a pick-six in his third attempt and
eliminated any chance of victory.
I was somewhat
encouraged by Todd Haley’s first game playcalling. He stuck with the run even with frustrating
execution (67 yards on 23 running back carries), something Arians probably
never would have done. I do think that
helped Roethlisberger stay upright most of the game (2 sacks up until that
last, meaningless drive).
Execution on
offense, in general, was poor and if not for Ben Roethlisberger’s heroics on
third down could have led to a really bad looking game. First down execution, in particular, was
horrible producing only 79 yards on 26 plays.
Amazingly, we still had a 73.1% drive success rate, but that is an
exception and not to be expected.
Overall, the offense
(despite better playcalling) looked very similar to last year. The offensive line play was very poor and
injuries look to be part of the season again (although both Marcus Gilbert and
Ramon Foster are expected to return week 2).
The lack of athleticism on the line continues to lead to too many guys
on the ground. That’s when injuries
occur and I see nothing to suggest a change moving forward.
The real concern for
me was on defense. Peyton Manning,
despite a year away from the game, improved his record to 7-1 vs. a Dick Lebeau
defense. He looked as good as ever, producing
a 150.9 deljzc rating, and scoring on his last four possessions (3 touchdowns). After starting strong in the 1st
quarter, the Steelers defense was beat every time for the remainder of the game. In fact, in those four drives, the Steelers
only generated two 3rd and longs (stopping them on the second to
force a field goal). They literally
weren’t even close to getting Manning off the field.
It was a bit
demoralizing how easily Manning sliced through the defense. His no huddle attack caught the Steelers with
bad personnel grouping (particularly Casey Hampton at NT). This forced Woodley to drop into coverage
over 50% of his snaps on the field. Combined
with James Harrison’s injury, the pass rush looked anemic at times. Chris Carter and Lawrence Timmons looked
overmatched on the weak side and Larry Foote, although he filled up the stat
sheet, didn’t make a real difference.
The secondary played
below average as well. Starting corners
Ike Taylor and Keenan Lewis allowed 12 of Manning’s 19 completions without a
pass defended between them. And both
missed a tackle as well. Ryan Clark’s
absence hindered Polamalu’s ability to make impact plays and Manning seemed particularly
adept at countering any improvisation Polamalu tried to do during the
game. Ryan Mundy played his usual
below-average game covering the deep half.
While this wasn’t
the 35-7 shellacking the Steelers got last year at Baltimore, it wasn’t as far
off as some believe if not for some clutch 3rd down passes by Big
Ben.
Next week is the
Steelers home opener versus the visiting J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets. They are coming off an “everything bounced our
way” destruction of Buffalo and have a lot of confidence. It will be a good test although Vegas already
has the Steelers early 6 point favorites.
To improve, the
Steelers must do a better job on 1st downs offensively and not get
exposed with no-huddle attacks on defense.
Better use of defensive personnel will help (less Casey Hampton please)
and both James Harrison and Ryan Clark are expected to play. I hope the team is up to the challenge.
Go Steelers!
NFL Power Rankings
Power Rankings are based on who I would think would be
favored on a neutral field if they played this week.
1. San Francisco 49ers (1-0)
2. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
3. New England Patriots (1-0)
4. Green Bay Packers (0-1)
5. Houston Texans (1-0)
6. Denver Broncos (1-0)
7. Atlanta Falcons (1-0)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)
9. Chicago Bears (1-0)
10. Dallas Cowboys
(1-0)
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