The 2012 Pittsburgh Steelers
Season Preview
The Steelers organization hobbled into the
2012 off-season after an injured December and an embarrassing playoff loss to
Tim Tebow and the Broncos. Change began
with the firing of offensive coordinator Bruce Arians (replaced by Todd Haley)
and retirements of past pro bowlers Hines Ward, James Farrior and Aaron Smith. And while the organization did its normal
magic with the salary cap, free agency and draft, the lingering absence of Mike
Wallace throughout camp kept negative attention on the team.
For all these reasons, the
national media seems a bit down on the prospects of the Steelers repeating
their 12-4 season a year ago. Sports
Illustrated has gone so far to degrade them to 8-8 and missing the playoffs.
I can’t deny there are real
concerns with the roster this season that may or may not become so problematic
to affect our record. Preseason injuries
to first round pick David DeCastro and third round pick Sean Spence highlight
two positions that I think will be noticeably weak on game days: offensive guard and right inside linebacker
(“Buck”). Spence was never projected to
play strong side inside linebacker, but his loss further thins the group’s
depth and will likely mean more snaps for Larry Foote. While I have accepted Foote’s reacquisition
in 2010 for depth purposes, I am greatly concerned at the idea of him getting
75% or more snap time on the defense.
Maybe Dick Lebeau will surprise me and scheme away from four linebackers
at times, but history has shown him to sometimes be stubbornly loyal to slower
veterans that understand his system.
At guard, the loss of Decastro
means the reinsertion of Ramon Foster at right guard. Foster was rated one of the lowest starters
in the league by Pro Football Focus a year ago and I expect similar problems
again. Likewise, Willie Colon’s position
switch to left guard as he attempts to come back from an Achilles tear is rife
with uncertainty. On some plays in
preseason he looked woefully slow versus quicker 3-techniques. The likely poor play at both guard spots will
put pressure on Pouncey to try and do too much (like last year). Overall, the middle of the offensive line is
probably the weakest part of the team.
These are real concerns heading
into week 1 of the season, before the grind starts to wear down and expose even
more depth and roster issues.
Fortunately for the Steelers,
this isn’t 1974 when being strong “up-the-middle” on offense and defense was
almost a prerequisite for winning.
Today’s game is as much played outside the hash marks as in and on that
front, the Steelers appear to have winning talent.
On offense, it will start and end
with Ben Roethlisberger, his health, and his ability to run Todd Haley’s new
system. Last year the offense was
woefully inconsistent with their ability to produce points. Untimely turnovers, missed field goals and
bad clock management contributed to an unheard of 16 trips into the red zone that
produced zero points. That’s a
statistical anomaly that will not happen again, regardless of the offensive
coordinator change (to put that into perspective the Steelers had only 18 trips
into the red zone produce zero points in the THREE PREVIOUS SEASONS).
I fully expect some hiccups early
in the season as Roethlisberger adjusts to the new play calling of Haley. And with Wallace’s late arrival, there could
be some mix ups in routes/passes. But
all signs point to a better offense and better points per possession than in
2011. With Haley committing much needed
practice time to the running game and screen game and with a healthy and
talented stable of receivers, this should be an extremely balanced and potent
attack that could hit stride following the team’s week 4 bye.
I can’t remember a time I was as
positive about the skill positions as I am now with the Steelers. Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Heath Miller,
Rashard Mendenhall, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaac Redman, Chris Rainey, Jericho
Cotchery, Wesley Saunders and Jon Dwyer all deserve touches. All are legitimate NFL talents in my
opinion. All are under 30 except
Cotchery (who just turned 30). When
people say the Steelers are “old”, it isn’t this group they are talking
about. While I understand both Wallace
and Mendenhall aren’t under contract in 2013, that could benefit the Steelers
this year as both look to increase their free agent value.
I am extremely anxious to see
what Todd Haley does with all these “toys” and think the Steelers offense could
be a much better unit than the nation media anticipates, even with the concerns
on the offensive line.
The Steelers might need all the
points they can get some weeks because the defense looks to be held together
with duct tape, string and Dick Lebeau’s 74 year old mind. The starting 11 on paper is still as strong a
unit in the NFL. While I have growing
concerns with Larry Foote, this team is stacked with name recognition players: Brett Keisel, James Harrison, Casey Hampton,
Lamarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Ryan Clark, Troy Polamalu and Ike
Taylor. And when these guys play
together and have Lebeau’s guidance, good things normally happen.
It’s the other parts to the
puzzle, the national “unknowns” that have question marks:
I am excited at the progress of
the young cornerbacks: Keenan Lewis,
Cortez Allen and Curtis Brown. I am
encouraged by undrafted Steve McLendon at nose tackle. I am hopeful that first round picks Ziggy
Hood and Cameron Heyward start providing some impact plays. I am concerned at the backup OLB spots if Jason
Worilds or Chris Carter have to play multiple games. And I am downright scared if we lose Clark or
Polamalu for an extended time.
Excited - Encouraged - Hopeful -
Concerned - Scared
I don’t know how many or how deep on that list
we go this year, but I suspect we will face more than Steeler Nation wants
to. The key to our season and playoff
success could be more a matter or when than if.
Last season, the team played only
the first 4 games with James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley and Troy Polamalu
healthy. They generated a Lebeau-low of 15
turnovers. And they still schemed a
rather successful statistical season around that (4th in defensive
passer rating, 8th in drive success rate, 3rd in
points/possession).
Even with my hopes, concerns and
fears, there is a part of me that says Lebeau and Tomlin will again easily
scheme a top-10 defense. That we’ll get
enough mileage out of our 30-year old defenders and one or two young players
will surprise more than anticipated.
And when you start putting
together the likely statistical picture of this team, there is no way you get
an 8-8 team like Peter King predicts.
There were too many negative, odd stats that should be corrected positively
for the Steelers that will counterbalance the pessimisms the national media
sees.
This team WILL score more in the
red zone. This team WILL generate more
turnovers and not be minus 13 in turnover ratio.
Those two facts alone will make
up a lot of other weaknesses.
All-in-all, the Steelers remain a
title contender that when hitting on all cylinders is as balanced as any team
in the NFL. The top-end potential of the
offense, defense and special teams is easily top-10 in all categories. Key stats like passer rating differential,
drive success rate and Football Outsiders DVOA continue to paint a picture of a
solid and well put together team that will win more games than they lose.
Las Vegas likes us for 10
wins. I say we finish one better at 11-5
and contend for a divisional championship and first round bye in the
playoffs. Mike Tomlin has overachieved
in regular season win totals three out of the last four seasons and I see
another successful campaign for him and the team.
Success in the playoffs will be
much trickier to predict and I hope we can avoid health issues and/or a bad
matchup that would lead to another embarrassing playoff exit. The fact the regime of Tomlin/Roethlisberger
has already lost to Del Rio/Gerrard and Fox/Tebow in the playoffs is bad
enough. When and if this team makes the
playoffs, I will have higher standards regardless of peripheral issues.
It’s now time to sit back and let
the story of the 2012 Steelers season write itself. I’m excited and anxious as the season draws
to its start.
Go Steelers!!!
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