Here is a spreadsheet of the final Steelers player participation records for the 2011 season.
There is also information on tracking offensive formations based on player-personnel groupings.
It will be interesting to see how these change next year under new offensive coordinator Todd Haley.
2011 Steelers Player Participation
Thanks for reading!
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
NFL Business 101
How the NFL can solve the Los Angeles dilemma
The NFL is dead set getting back into the Los Angeles market with a franchise. This has been stated numerous times by both Roger Goodell and the more influential owners in the league.
The question becomes whether this will be accomplished with or without expansion over the next three to five seasons.
In my opinion expansion is not the best move for the league. We have seen the effects of these money-grabs by owners in the past (and believe me, we are talking $50-60 million per owner in CASH if they choose to expand to 34 teams). The diluted rosters of teams, combined with the potential for a longer season (and larger rosters) could severely impact the quality of play.
Expansion has had huge negative impact on both the NHL and NBA and both leagues are struggling to find ways to backpedal from those decisions.
The key to finding a good solution using the existing 32 franchises is to follow the signs of stadium construction and local revenue. A list of current NFL stadiums can be found here:
If you sort the list by “date opened” you clearly see the franchises most mentioned when discussing relocation. And you clearly see a major problem in California; as Candlestick Park (49ers), O.co Coliseum (Raiders) and Qualcomm Stadium (Chargers) are in the bottom five oldest stadiums in the league.
All three of these franchises need new stadiums that will require some amount of public funding (even if they say otherwise). Combine that with trying to build a new stadium in Los Angeles and you quickly realize the problems facing these organizations and their state/local governments. The fact of the matter is California is not going to help fund FOUR new stadiums, through taxes or infrastructure improvements. Neither will the league (through their stadium fund) pursue this option.
The solution lies in building only TWO new stadiums in California and getting maximum use of them by sharing each (similar to how the Giants and Jets share MetLife Stadium).
This has been discussed already in the Oakland/San Francisco area and will likely happen in the next five years by building a dual occupancy, state of the art facility that will replace both Candlestick and Oakland Coliseum. It makes too much sense and helps too many entities moving forward.
The other stadium will be built in Los Angeles. This means San Diego is on the short end of the stick as their request for public funding will likely fall on deaf ears after millions are spent in San Francisco and L.A.
The solution of course is to move San Diego north and make them one of two teams to call the new Los Angeles stadium home. There is history here as well as the Chargers actually started their franchise in Los Angeles in 1960. If the likely site for the new stadium is in Diamond Bar, CA (Rt. 58 & Rt. 60), then this is less than 2 hours from downtown San Diego and not a hard drive north on Route 15.
The Chargers, if they wanted, could even keep their name, practice facilities, headquarters and everything else in the San Diego area, only traveling on game days. I would not even be opposed to someday moving back to San Diego if a new stadium could be financed when economic times are better, but that just looks unattainable in the short term.
Another obvious advantage is that the San Diego Charges can remain in the AFC West division and maintain all rivalries with Oakland, Denver and Kansas City.
The second team to move to Los Angeles and share the new stadium with the Chargers should be the St. Louis Rams. The Rams organization has been in a state of flux for a while now. They have a new owner and have just hired Jeff Fisher (who happens to be a west coast guy). The Rams were also in Los Angeles from 1946-1994 and have a long-standing fan base (particularly south and east of center city).
With this move, the Rams can remain in the NFL West with the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals.
This opens up St. Louis as a relocation spot for a current unviable market. Edward Jones Dome is not the best of facilities (having already been through upgrades in 2007 and 2010), but the St. Louis market remains vital to the success of the NFL (being the 18th largest metropolitan market in the U.S.)
Three cities are currently unviable either because of stadium, economic or market issues. These are Minnesota, Jacksonville and Buffalo. I propose to resolve each of these situations as follows:
The Minnesota Vikings are currently in do-or-die end negotiations to build a new, partially public funded stadium to remain in Minnesota. I believe a new stadium will be agreed upon in the next six months and the Vikings remain in Minnesota. This is what is best for the community, franchise and league as a whole. There is a strong history of football in Minnesota with the Vikings and I would hate to see that franchise move.
The same history can be said for Buffalo, but unlike Minnesota (which has remained a stable economy and population), the city and community have been declining in size and relevance over the past two decades (in fact, Buffalo has fallen in population each decade since 1950).
I know this upsets the western New York faithful, but unless the Buffalo franchise embraces Toronto and Hamilton, Ontario, the Bills as a franchise cannot compete with their divisional rivals in New York, Miami and New England. The economics of their city just don’t add up.
Moving to Toronto tomorrow isn’t really a solution either as the SkyDome isn’t an upgraded NFL ready stadium (seating only 50,000 and privately owned).
The Bills are a tough organization to predict in general because it is doubtful the franchise remains in the Wilson family after Ralph Wilson’s death (he is currently 93 years old). Ideally the NFL needs a new owner, with cash and Canadian connections that is willing to invest in and try and tie together the Toronto market and the western New York market in a non-adversarial way. This will involve a new state of the art arena in the next decade, the location to be determined.
Does this mean the team official “moves” to Toronto? I don’t know. But Bills fans should be very careful to fight this plan because the other option might be moving the franchise to London and that’s not what anyone really wants (including this writer).
The last team to discuss is the Jacksonville Jaguars. In my opinion, the Jacksonville market has never been a good location for an NFL franchise. While the city itself has the largest metropolis population in Florida (850,000), the problem is really the size and wealth of the regional market. For example Miami (pop. 400,000) has a regional population of 5.5 million and Tampa-St. Petersburg a regional population of 4.5 million. Both dwarf Jacksonville’s 1.5 million area residents.
The Jacksonville area is also highly devoted to Florida Gators athletics much more so than professional sports. In recent seasons attendance to Jaguars games has been problematic and failed to reach expectations.
Jacksonville is the logical franchise to relocate. A new owner from Illinois (Shahid Khan) further helps the idea of moving the Jaguars to midwest St. Louis. The Jaguars also have no iconic history in the NFL and could more easily be renamed and marketed in the St. Louis area.
If the Jaguars move they could also remain in the AFC South division as they actually generate less travel miles from St. Louis than Jacksonville.
The only other unviable market that should be discussed is the New Orleans Saints. The New Orleans regional market is currently the smallest in the league (approximately the same size as Buffalo and ranked 46th in the U.S.). Ten years ago, I would have strongly argued for relocation of the Saints franchise. But recent success of the club has re-established their foothold in the Louisiana area and has staved off talks of relocation. However, if New Orleans ever does decline in success and attendance they will always be a viable franchise for relocation. A possible landing spot being somewhere in Mexico if and when the league decides to move that direction.
So in conclusion the ideal redistribution of franchise would move the Chargers and Rams into a new dual occupancy stadium in Los Angeles. The Vikings and Bills remaining in their respective regions (with the Bills possibly moving to a new stadium in Hamilton) and the Jaguars franchise relocating to the vacant St. Louis market.
This really makes the most sense both long term and short term for the league. And certainly is a better option than keeping Jacksonville afloat and fully paying for a new stadium in San Diego (or relocating them to an unknown location).
The truth is any expansion to 34 teams will eventually involve one or more overseas franchises. Thirty-four viable, available metropolitan areas just don’t exist currently in the U.S. (see list here: United States MSA)
I would argue California could maintain two new franchises in L.A while keeping San Diego in San Diego, but stadium-wise, that becomes an enormous short-term expense for the league and ownership (as new stadiums would have to be built in San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco in the next 5-8 years).
I do worry the NFL and Roger Goodell see expansion to 34 teams as a way to move overseas in the long run by starting in the U.S. then transplanting them when they fail. This is an easier “sell” to the American public than expanding into London, Mexico City or Tokyo immediately.
Overall, I think overseas franchises would be a bad idea. It would be combined with additional bye weeks, a new 18 game schedule and expanded rosters. Just not what I think is best for the league. There is symmetry in 4 teams in 8 divisions playing 16 games that I hope remains for some time.
The NFL is a multi-billion dollar organization and the carrots of expansion can be tempting. But ownership and the commissioner must maintain reason to protect the golden goose. Major reorganization, expansion or overseas games could do more harm than good.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Steelers 23 Broncos 29
Pittsburgh -7½ at Denver 34 -340 +240
Win Probability 75.48%
I can’t imagine a more embarrassing exit to a playoff appearance in my 35+ seasons as a diehard Steelers fan. There are losses that have made me more upset (San Diego in 1994). There are losses that hit closer to the heart (Super Bowl XXX).
But I have never been embarrassed to this degree.
In fact I am hard-pressed to find a playoff game in Steelers history we lost being favored as much as the 7½ points versus Denver.
The history books will forever see that a 12-4 team led by Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger and having a top-5 defense losing against an 8-8 team led by John Fox and Tim Tebow (a team that went 4-12 the previous season). There are plenty of in-depth realistic excuses for why this happened. How the game was close due to injuries. How the Steelers hobbled into the post season offensively.
But the truth is when Roethlisberger retires, we’re not going to remember that. Just as we don’t remember all the details surrounding our home playoff exit to Jacksonville in 2007 (a team that has gone 25-39 since).
In fact, this game was eerily similar to that Jack Del Rio and David Gerrard loss five seasons ago (another that rankles me considerably). In both instances the team started poorly and fell behind at halftime due to wasted offensive opportunities. In both instances the offense sparked a late comeback. And in both instances, the defense ended up having a huge breakdown that lost the game.
Honestly, this is a loss on the resume of Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger that I’m not sure they ever overcome. You might think that’s overstating such a meaningless game, but I disagree.
I have stated time and again (sometimes yelled) that this organization failed to capitalize on a rare opportunity to be a great team. The failings are across the board, from ownership to player acquisition to coaching and player execution and preparation.
For all the apparent great things we accomplish, the inconsistencies in the team’s performance year-to-year eliminates any and all talk of “greatness” to me. Great teams don’t lose to Tim Tebow. Great teams don’t lose to David Gerrard at home. Great teams don’t miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl. I don’t care how injured, how beat up, how hobbled, how broken down the roster is, a great coach, an elite quarterback and a deep roster find ways to win those games.
Believe me, I’m not saying in either 2007 or 2011 the Steelers were legit super bowl contenders. The chances to run the table after wildcard weekend were certainly bleak in each case. But to so easily bow out of the tournament speaks volumes to me about the Tomlin and Roethlisberger and what this organization finds acceptable.
It is three weeks later and I’m still upset, frustrated and angry at this organization.
The game itself exemplified all the little things that knowledgeable fans harp about week-in and week-out about this team. Failure to capitalize offensively (starting the game with two FG’s after dominating the 1st quarter). Stubborn game plans that don’t change or adjust due to the circumstances in the game. Breakdowns in game management.
We lost to a high school offense. An offense that ran a simple QB running option attack and threw the ball long 10 times hoping something good would happen. And it did. Partly because of the arrogant defense we played encourage Tebow to throw long into one-on-one matchups and partly because the players just failed to execute.
It was arrogant of us to think Demaryius Thomas (who I’m sure we scouted heavily in 2010) would not have a physical advantage vs. Ike Taylor man-to-man. Thomas was a 1st round pick for a reason. He is raw and doesn’t read defenses or run routes well. But to give him simple man-to-man situations where his 6’3½”, 225 lbs. athleticism can shine was a terrible decision. This was particularly poor between the 20’s with so much real estate to defend deep.
As soon as our linemen rotation was decimated due to injury a game plan change should have been implemented, but under Tomlin’s regime that NEVER happens. Not once have I seen their game plan change due to injury (on both sides). You saw that in Super Bowl XLIV when Charles Woodson left the game. You see that when Eric Decker left the game. You see it when both Hampton and Keisel left the game.
Instead of realizing the pass rush in altitude wasn’t working and trying more coverage/zone tactics against Tebow, we blitzed MORE to compensate and exposed our secondary to even tougher assignments.
I have a tough time even saying we were “out-coached” because I’m not sure John Fox had to coach at all. Their offensive game plan presented itself based entirely on how the Steelers played. Tebow HAD to throw deep because that’s what we gave them. Instead of making Tebow throw timing routes outside the numbers (which he can’t do), we gave him opportunities to just throw it up for grabs. Instead of seeing a depleted receiving core and making them send receivers into patterns, we let them max protect and send their best 2-3 receivers out on routes.
As stated before, I am EMBARRESSED by how we prepared and played this game. And no amount of “we weren’t going anywhere with those injuries” is going to change my mind that you have to take advantage of playoff wins as an organization.
Roethlisberger had 10 career playoff wins before age 30. The record is now 16 (and counting) by Tom Brady. There is no doubt in my mind Roethlisberger should have two more.
The accomplishments Roethlisberger most has a chance to become all-time great in is playoff victories as a starting quarterback. It could (and should) be his legacy as a player. The super bowl appearances are there (2 wins, 1 loss). It’s just a matter of padding your stats a bit when the opportunities present themselves and hoping the team has one or two runs deep into the playoffs when the circumstances are right (health, matchups).
I will end my rant with this comment.
In Bill Cowher’s 16 year career with the Steelers, he had only ONE loss against a team with as poor a coach/quarterback combination as what Tomlin and Roethlisberger have now done twice (Del Rio/Gerrard and Fox/Tebow). That was the 1994 home loss against the Bobby Ross/Stan Humphries Chargers in the AFC Championship game. However, even that loss was when Cowher had Neil O’Donnell (not hall-of-famer Roethlisberger).
All of Cowher’s remaining playoff losses were against superior coach/quarterback combination:
Jim Kelly & Marv Levy (1992)
Joe Montana & Marty Schottenheimer (1993)
Troy Aikman & Barry Switzer (1995)
Drew Bledsoe & Bill Parcells (1996)
John Elway & Mike Shanahan (1997)
Tom Brady & Bill Belichick (2001)
Steve McNair & Jeff Fisher (2002)
Tom Brady & Bill Belichick (2004)
Read that list again and explain to me how I can “accept” losing to John Fox and Tim Tebow. Really? There are legitimate excuses I’m supposed to consider in this context?
I’m actually shocked so many Steelers fans are as apathetic about this loss as is. There is a general ho-hum attitude from many that it “wasn’t our year”.
I call bullshit.
I would have loved another crack at New England or Baltimore even as big underdogs. I actually saw a fan write “I’d rather lose to Tebow now that Tom Brady next week.”
That’s awful.
We should have expected more.
Go Steelers in 2012!!!
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Steelers Weeks 12-17
Steelers 13 Chiefs 9
Pittsburgh -11 @Kansas City 42 -700 +500
Win Probability 85.42%
Steelers 35 Bengals 7
@Pittsburgh -7 Cincinnati 42.5 -310 +260
Win Probability 73.92%
Steelers 14 Browns 3
@Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland 40 -1100 +750
Win Probability 89.95%
Steelers 3 49ers 20
@San Francisco -3 Pittsburgh 37 -165 +145
Win Probability 39.28%
Steelers 27 Rams 0
@Pittsburgh -10 St. Louis 33.5 -500 +400
Win Probability 81.67%
Steelers 13 Browns 9
Pittsburgh -7 @Cleveland 33 -330 +270
Win Probability 74.86%
The injury situation I was so optimistic about during our bye week has not turned out to be positive. Highlighted by Ben Roethlisberger’s severe ankle sprain and Rashard Mendenhall’s torn ACL the last week of the season, this team appears more worn down now than six weeks ago and so much so it could severely impact our playoff run.
That said, we did take care of business as I had hoped, albeit with some ugly offensive performances. The team ended with a very respectable 12-4 record but lost the tie-breaker to a resilient Ravens team that deservedly won the division due to their regular season sweep.
The team now travels on the road for the wildcard round of the playoffs where they meet the Tim Tebow led 8-8 Denver Broncos, a game we are currently favored by 8½ points.
The final stretch of the 2011 season is highlighted by additional struggles on the offensive side of the ball but improved and clutch defensive play. All six games above came in under the Las Vegas point totals. The defense allowed an absurd 8.0 points per game while the offense struggled and only scored 17.5, including only 30 total points in Roethlisberger’s last three starts on his injured ankle (CLE, @SF, @CLE).
It was ugly December football and there is really no denying that.
The question becomes whether we can continue to win this way come playoff time and if not what part of the puzzle has to change?
The game versus Denver probably won’t answer much. Despite being heavy favorites you have to expect another ugly, grueling, low-scoring game. The offense under Roethlisberger has just not consistently executed enough to think we can score 20+ points without defensive help and holding Denver under 10 seems likely unless our offense helps them.
A zero turnover game clearly favors the Steelers to outlast the Broncos based on their deeper talent base and physicality. But in any low scoring game turnovers, missed FG’s, or even one defensive lapse can mean the difference between winning and losing.
After Sunday, who knows? I would suspect injuries finally catch up to us, but I also am not afraid of either New England or Baltimore, or think either is an impossible matchup. I would not be shocked if we gut-out a victory vs. either. The hard part doing that three straight times for a world championship (we will likely be underdogs every remaining game of the playoffs after this week).
I will delve into a lot more statistical analysis of the regular season in the coming months but as of now, I’ll say the season has been a success, despite losing the division to Baltimore. Twelve win seasons are nothing to sneeze at in the NFL. It was unfortunate half our losses came against our arch-rivals, but the roles were reversed a year ago and maybe this is just karma evening things out. Hopefully that karma doesn’t extend into the playoffs and the Steelers can rock the boat as a wildcard. Nothing would please me more than getting another shot at the Ravens this post-season and beating them.
While the record the Steelers accomplished was exactly as I predicted in August, how we accomplished it is not close. I suspected a drop off with the defense and an MVP caliber season from Roethlisberger. That didn’t happen. The defense remained very good but did not generate the turnovers or sacks of previous seasons. They ranked 3rd in points allowed/possession, 8th in Drive Success Rate, and 4th in defensive passer rating (actually a better rating than 2010). Football Outsiders ranked the defense 7th overall.
The offense was below expectations due almost entirely to turnovers and red zone production. The Steelers ranked 29th in turnovers per possession and failed to convert points on 16 of 53 trips into the red zone. This led to a huge disparity in our Drive Success Rate (72.2%, 6th), which is the highest ever during Roethlisberger’s career, versus points scored per possession (1.86, 14th).
In many ways if the light bulb ever goes off with this offensive unit, if we can avoid turnovers and score TD’s in the red zone (at least stop turning it over!), then we might be able to catch fire in the playoffs and make a run at a championship. I know it seems unlikely (that’s way too many if’s), but it’s not impossible. This team just needs to execute a clean game, play smart and play within themselves.
I’m not giving up.
This has not been Roethlisberger’s best season but he has made some magical post-season runs before. Let’s have some faith and see what happens.
Go Steelers!!!
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Steelers Weeks 8 -10
Steelers 25 Patriots 17
New England -3 @Pittsburgh 52 -170 +150
Win Probability 38.52%
Ravens 23 Steelers 20
@Pittsburgh -3.5 Baltimore 41.5 -200 +170
Win Probability 64.81%
Steelers 24 Bengals 17
Pittsburgh -3.5 @Cincinnati 40 -205 +175
Win Probability 65.42%
The Steelers navigated the gauntlet part of their schedule with a very respectable 2-1 record with an impressive victory over New England, a heartbreaking loss to the Ravens and a nice bounce-back road victory at Cincinnati.
It could be argued they lost the most important of the three contests, but I think if you offered any Steelers fan the option of a 2-1 record back on October 29th without telling them who the loss was against, they would have accepted it. I know I would have.
Now the team gets a much deserved rest and has the potential to make a nice run in December towards the playoffs. The bye week should give the team an opportunity to get healthy and have all hands on deck. This includes Lamarr Woodley, James Farrior and Hines Ward. In fact, other than the season ending injury to Aaron Smith, I would think there is potential to have every other major contributor ready to go by the playoffs.
All-in-all the season to date has been acceptable. We are overachieving slightly (by about a ½ game in the win column) and have a decent shot to put up a 12 win season. That’s pretty good when you consider the common hangover associated with a Super Bowl loser the previous season.
From a statistical analysis, there is room for improvement and there are still frustrating inconsistencies on both sides of the football. But again, there aren’t many teams in the league we can’t compete with on any given Sunday, even playing just good football. In the current landscape of the NFL, there is Green Bay and then a lot of tier-2 teams that flash exceptional football. The Steelers are in this next group along with Baltimore, New England, Houston (who is now without Matt Schaub), both New York teams, Cincinnati, Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco, New Orleans and Atlanta. It appears there is more luck and a timely play that separate these teams than talent and/or coaching.
I guess that will make for an exciting brand of playoff football this January.
So what is next? Beating the teams we’re supposed to beat and bringing a consistent brand of football between the lines in the process. Taking care of business and being professional. Concentration and mistake free execution at critical points on the field (3rd downs, red zone). Further expansion of our pass defense (using both man and zone concepts) and the ability to adjust as need be to situations and quarterbacks.
That’s the key for the Steelers 2011 season. We have positioned ourselves to make a run. We have survived injuries. Players have stepped up when asked. Now we just let the chips fall where they may.
Go Steelers!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)